Modelling the future: the need to build climate-resilient infrastructure

Eftychia Koursari, Technical Director
Thomas Bartle, Principal Consultant
20 November 2025
Cityscape at sunset.
Speak to an expert about your challenge
Get in touch

Related markets and services

Since 1980, the UK has warmed at an average rate of around 0.25°C per decade. The most recent decade (2015-2024) was 1.24°C warmer than the 1961-1990 baseline. At first glance, that increase might appear modest, but the reality tells a whole different story. Even relatively small, incremental increases in average temperature can trigger a sharp rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat. In the past decade alone, the number of days where temperatures have risen 8°C above the average has trebled, and the days exceeding 10°C above average have quadrupled.

These figures show that climate change is not a slow, predictable process, in fact - it is already altering the UK’s weather patterns and this is becoming the norm. This is likely to be a worrying threat to the resilience of our infrastructure. One particular issue linked to more frequent and severe flooding is scour. The risk of scour is increasing with more severe weather events, and a direct impact of this is the erosion of riverbeds, riverbanks and around structures’ foundations which pose a growing threat to the stability of vital transport networks. So, what kind of impact is climate change having on today’s infrastructure and what can we do to track and remedy these escalating changes? 

We have to design and deliver climate-adaptive, sustainable solutions.

Climate change – impact on infrastructure

The UK's infrastructure faces significant challenges when temperatures rise to and above 35°C, a threshold exceeded just 6 times from 1853 to 1975. However, since 2020, this figure has been met 56 times, highlighting the sharp increase in extreme heat events. The strain rising temperatures has on infrastructure assets is clear. Railways are particularly vulnerable, as steel tracks expand and risk failing, while overhead power lines can sag and the ground beneath the tracks dry up and form cracks, creating instability. Roads also experience similar issues due to the heat including the tarmac softening and, in some cases, even melting (especially on older surfaces), damaging vehicles and creating hazards for road users. Meanwhile, buildings are experiencing higher temperatures, with one-fifth of homes in England overheating and being affected by conditions that may impact health and daily activities. Heatwaves are now a regular feature of the UK climate, and their impacts cascade across sectors, underlining the urgent need for a proactive and systemic approach to resilience.

Rail tracks at sunset. 8 tracks merge into 1.
Railways are particularly vulnerable, as steel tracks expand and risk failing, while overhead power lines can sag and the ground beneath the tracks dry up and form cracks, creating instability.

However, changes in the climate are not just limited to rising temperatures, but also more frequent and intense shifts in weather patterns, such as increasing frequency of named winter storms and summer storms, the latter particularly after prolonged periods of dry weather. One devastating impact of climate change is the formation of scour on bodies of water and in and around highway and railway infrastructure. Scour is the erosion of riverbeds and riverbanks, as well as structural foundations caused by the action of water. For instance, more frequent and intense storms can increase the velocity and volume of water that can go beyond what specific rivers can accommodate, which as a result can create extreme levels of scour and erosion around structures such as bridges and embankments.

A modern example of a bridge collapse as a result of scour is the Malahide Viaduct, which carries the Dublin to Belfast railway line over the Broadmeadow Estuary. The structure collapsed on August 21, 2009, during peak commuting hours and occurred when two spans fell due to scour undermining the supporting grout apron at Pier 4. All structures built in or around watercourses are at risk of scour, as its impact can cause shifts in the very foundations these structures are built upon. In fact, scour is the most common cause of bridge failure worldwide, responsible for approximately 60% of bridge collapses. What’s more, scour failure can result in bridges collapsing with little to no warning signs resulting in not only prolonged traffic disruption with major socioeconomic consequences, but also tragic loss of life. This certainly doesn’t bode well for the UK’s aging bridge stock which is increasingly exposed to more frequent and severe flood events. Scour is one of the most urgent and complex risks in infrastructure, and climate change is accelerating it.

In order to tackle these issues, we have to design and deliver climate-adaptive, sustainable solutions that can predict and model potential climate changes so that we can better address these issues more proactively and protect not just infrastructure, but communities, economies, and lives.

It is paramount that organisations move away from reactive maintenance to proactive planning.

Why climate resilience modelling and predictive maintenance matter

Climate resilience modelling and predictive maintenance are key approaches that provide different ways to anticipate and manage these risks before they become crises. At Amey, our climate expertise combined with our data-led approach, enables us to help organisations to analyse climate projections to understand changing weather patterns and forecast a range of potential climate events. Additionally, our deep knowledge of asset management also enables us to stress-test infrastructure, highlight vulnerabilities, and develop adaptative strategies that strengthen performance of infrastructure over the long-term.


Predictive modelling is especially critical for managing scour. That’s because combining predictive modelling with real-time scour monitoring technologies can allow infrastructure service providers to better understand where risks are highest, conduct early intervention, and prevent costly or dangerous failures. We achieve this by feeding real-time data into the modelling solutions to forecast the levels and appetite for risk as well as helping to evaluate potential mitigation and make more informed decisions. This is especially pertinent as scour is one of the most urgent and complex risks in bridge infrastructure, and climate change is accelerating it. With limited budgets and the sheer volume of aging structures, it is simply not feasible to deliver scour protection everywhere, all at once. Monitoring using tools such as remote scour monitoring systems and water flow monitoring solutions allow for the tracking of changes in the waterbed, as well as fluctuations in water flow conditions. This approach is of critical importance for proactively predicting and reacting to changes in scour depth. This also means that engineers can readily identify which structures are most at risk and need close attention, prioritise interventions based on real-time data, and implement faster and smaller fixes where possible to avoid costly closures and disruptions. There is a need to ensure infrastructure assets are resilient, future-proof, and safe, even in the face of extreme weather.

Image of two men looking at a departure board.
We feed real-time data into the modelling solutions to forecast the levels and appetite for risk as well as helping to evaluate potential mitigation and make more informed decisions.

When it comes to predictive maintenance, digital asset management solutions are standout ways in which maintenance teams can take a proactive approach to asset management which in turn, can deliver some tangible results. This includes benefits such as a reduction in risk due to anticipating potential failures more readily and reducing the need for costly unnecessary interventions. This proactive approach enables engineers to track, monitor and model the structural health of infrastructure assets in real-time. For instance, when managing bridge infrastructure, engineers will be able to maintain assets through cyclic maintenance, daily structure inspection checks and safety patrols, in addition to tracking and responding to any incidents that could impact the structural integrity of the bridges.

What’s more, the power of technologies such as machine learning (ML) can be used to predict the effects of adverse weather conditions on bridge structures reducing the need for reactive and costly interventions, and therefore enhancing safety. It is paramount that organisations move away from reactive maintenance to proactive planning – ensuring safer, more reliable networks, avoiding costly failures, and supporting long-term sustainability goals.

We have also been deploying a combination of operational monitoring systems at locations vulnerable to scour, harnessing the capabilities of the Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enable a more proactive response to scour. These systems can remotely track hydrological conditions, sediment transport and structural behaviour, detect early signs of internal embankment erosion, while also further enhancing situational awareness and risk detection. This is critical as flood-induced hazards can cause sudden collapse of bridge infrastructure without prior warning, and with significant socio-economic impacts. These systems aim to support timely interventions and safeguard infrastructure, the workforce, and the travelling public.

We help to ensure our clients’ assets are designed, maintained, and operated to be as resilient as possible.

Moving towards a resilient future

Adapting infrastructure for a changing climate requires more than isolated interventions, it calls for a systems thinking approach that spans design, operations and maintenance. The UK climate is already changing, and the pace of extreme weather events is increasing both in frequency and intensity. From upgrading transport systems and implementing building cooling solutions to delivering flood alleviation schemes in urban areas, resilience must be at the core of every service we deliver. Now is the time for the infrastructure industry to act decisively.

Amey’s Climate Secure value proposition was established to respond directly to this need, and through the combination of our industry leading expertise with our data-led capabilities, we help to ensure our clients’ assets are designed, maintained, and operated to be as resilient as possible. This way we can help protect communities, properly utilise infrastructure investment, and support the transition to a net zero future.

Speak to an expert about your challenge.